I'd raise my fist in the air and wave it in solidarity with Cringely while letting you know 'lo the many years I've been reading his stuff but I tend to lose my balance when I let go of my walker.

"What we have here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can't reach. So you get what we had here last week..." The following quote from 'Cool Hand Luke' speaks to a trend in management that I encountered in uni as Operations Research. My readings suggested Operations Research took on a mantle of its own in the 60s. The application of scientific methods and, especially, algorithms to problems in organizations provides a methodology subject to quantifiable checks and has the added benefit of suggesting the methodology is without bias and free of people problems like nepotsim and prejudice against rebels without a cause like Cool Hand Luke. Like any other tool/artifact variations on Operations Research are open to abuse, creative use and mundane implementations. Implementation of OR raises very interesting moral and ethical questions. The success Big Blue realizes will just be one more step along the road to AI exhibited, not by machines, but by their makers.

Without turning overly garrulous it's interesting to see in the contingency that's history the rise of democracy from the interplay of the ancient exchange attempting to equate the duty of the individual to society and the right of the individual to individual freedom. In terms of this argument, in the west, we default to the contest in ancient Greece between Athens and Sparta. Creativity is tied to individual freedom. The freedom preached in nominal western democracies is crucial to the creativity driving the innovation behind successful OR management algorithms demanding the surrender of personal freedoms to the greater interest of the corporation. The awkward recursion between individual freedom, creativity and lean, algorithmic profit making invites visions of the Rise of the Machines directed by Corporate overlords having attained all the rights and privileges of citizenry.

Imagine, if you will... a Big Blue Borg Collective

The Cringe's reply to a poster who took him to task:

"If you are tired of thoughtful prose, by all means read something else."

Yeah, Bob, with bad puns, unsupported assertions, reports about what passes for your love life, etc, I've never considered your work to be "thoughtful prose". I guess that's why I read less and less of it.

What many fail to realize is that this is not just going to effect IBM, but EVERYONE

who works in US-IT. Some may characterize this as economics for IBM to survive. Well consider this- a flood of 100,000+ IT workers looking for jobs in the USA will surely drive down EVERYONE's salary! Forcing pressure on all US companies to adjust their market rates down. Which in turn means no raises to "Keep up with Market Rates".

Supply and Demand folks. Economics 101! And Commoditization of IT Jobs. So in 5 years, all your high-tech jobs, 4 year degrees, certifications will all be worth jack. The supporting IT industries will suffer as well!

Children of IT.

IBM LEAN Rythm and Big Blues!

I am a devoted follower of lean thinking. And in my mind, lean thinking is definitely not about massive layoffs and finding cheaper resources. If IBM is going to be laying off 90% of their workforce in the US, that is definitely NOT lean, as they will be eradicating their customer-base and value creating capabilities in that area in one swoop as well. They will also be destroying a large portion of their good will in the community, and trust of businesses all over. So if they have any clue, and have an inkling about lean thinking, this simply isn't going to happen.

We might see something like 25%-30%, which is a number seen in examples when introducing lean thinking into manufacturing companies, but that will be it. There can be no further layoffs for years, or the introduction of lean will fail. Lean thinking is partly about getting decision making power as low in the organizational hierarchy as possible and flattening the management structure. That kind of change requires the buy-in and participation of all employees, which does not happen when everyone has an axe hanging over their head.

We may also see IBM increase their presence overseas at the same time. But that will probably be just as much about following up on opportunities in that area as off-shoring jobs.

My theory on this is that someone in the company who sees his position threatened (typically someone in middle management whose job may become redundant by a flattened structure) by the lean movement is trying to thwart the effort of whoever is pushing lean thinking by twisting the story in a way that will show it in a negative light.

If you don't what lean thinking is, visit lean.org. If you're a software guy, I highly recommend reading "Lean Software Development" http://www.poppendieck.com

-Gudlaugur Egilsson

you pose the layoffs as "anti-american" when, in reality, american auto jobs, american steel jobs, american textile jobs, etc... have, for the most part, all gone over seas.

a lot of the electrical stuff is now being in tawain!

so, there's no reason to believe that the IT industry won't follow!

with 300 million americans and 2 billion indians and chinese, were 1/7 th of that population and, in a global economy, those in the US will be the minority players so they'll have to be really lucky to stay in "economic control."

many of the IGS jobs don't really matter any more. for example, I can go over to 1and1.com and get websites, just like that. and there are tons of other hosting places as well.

I don't know too much about the business but I have been watching Micron DRAM prices! a few years ago, I was happy to get 512MB for $95 and now you can get 2GB for $95, at crucial.com!

So, it's entirely possible that we'll see huge job cuts. Not because IBM employees are idiots but because of deflation and the fact that it takes fewer people to run the shop.

I recently tried out MIcrosoft's WPF .NET 3.0 platform and was left wowed at how easy GUI applications were to develop. In the past, I was given 6 months to create an application. Today, those same applications can be built in much less time.

thinking IBM will be different than GM and other big companies will be betting against history.

your history is probably accurate but doesn't account for globalization this time!

I'd like to think that you are wrong. But maybe you are right. I know what a few friends have said makes it sound as if thousands will be fired. I know they've said they have lost goood employees, *top performers* they say. I know they complain of the long hours and no compensation. They complained of this before the recent layoffs. I can assume that it is going to be worse for them now.

Lean really has not started yet technically. Everyone thinks that Lean is just a fancy way of saying they will be fired and their jobs will move to India or whatever happens to be the flavor of the month. So when Lean does start they expect that's when the big hits will come. I tend to trust their judgement on this as they have years of IBM layoffs to hone their foretelling. Some of my friends have been fired multiple times by IBM, conducting in my opinion, a disgusting vicious cycle.

I know that they complain that there is little explanation of what is going on. Everyday, every phone call, email, knock on the door to them the first though is if there is a meaning to it that it is the moment that they will have to go. One friend was afraid to tell his team lead he had to take time off to get his visa renewed. There are meetings held in secret and to them the fact that they see good people go is even more troubling. Granted not everyone fired was a top performer, but many were.

I just wish reporterts would talk to the employees. It sounds to me like Robert has. Much of what he reports sounds the same as what I hear. But much of what you stated seems like part and parcel from IBM's official line. You made a few spreadsheets, splashed some data and that's fine. Like I said, maybe you are right. But you miss the bigger story.

It's the story of how IBM's employees have lost faith in their company. How all fo them are worried like never before about losing their jobs. How they feel that the layoffs are focusing on the wrong areas. How they feel like their management doesn't really have an understanding to what is going on. How they feel the company is failing to meet it's business obligations with it's customers.

But to ask those questions takes talking to the people at the bottom of the ladder to get the real sense of the health of a company. This is something that spreadsheets and other pieces of data fail to represent.